I completely disagree.
When fleets were interviewed about this exact topic in 2006 a couple of things came out:
1) They had been tricked into pre-buys before and were not falling for it again. e used this info to not over stock pre-emissions units.
2) The economy was soft enough that it did not justify a pre-purchase for many companies.
3) Companies are no longer scared of the new technology. Would you believe that I have lost deals on 2010 model year trucks because customers actually WANT the new emissions? It's true.
4) Companies generally have trade cycles based on tax depreciation and wear. If they are profitable they will stick to this because it just doesn't pay to run the truck longer. The tax advantages are gone, the equipment continues to depreciate, warranty is out, and downtime and repairs begin to really catch up to them. If a truck sits for 3 days a month in a strange town waiting for a part, that's the payment that month in lost revenue.
Here is the thing, I'm in the industry and I read the industry publications carefully so I can predict how to inventory. Consider that I might actually know what I'm talking about.
The economy started to suck badly in early 2007 so people quit buying trucks.
The economy has began to improve markedly in 2010 and therefore trucks sales are now increasing. Used truck sales are thru the roof btw
. This is sort of the proverbial 'dipping the tow back in the water" for many companies.
The increased cost of the new emissions equipment really is a non issue when you look at the real cost to run a rig. Buy a truck for $130K and sell it in 5 years for $55K. In the meantime paying the driver w/ benefits, fuel, insurance, wear and tear, etc adds up to another million dollars. The actual purchase price of the truck is really a very small part of the equation and anyone in trucking that doesn't understand that really shouldn't be in trucking.