Recession is OVER???? - PowerStrokeNation : Ford Powerstroke Diesel Forum
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post #1 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 04:42 PM Thread Starter
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Recession is OVER????

I was watching CNN today while at the tire store and they were talking about how economists say that the recession ended in June of 2009. What is everyone's take on this?

Here are two articles about it.

NBER declares recession ended in June 2009 - Sep. 20, 2010

US Stocks Climb After Recession Called Over, Homebuilders Gain - WSJ.com

Jeff Dodd


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post #2 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 04:45 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

Its far from over. CNN is just trying to make Obama look good. Banks are being closed left and right.

Housing and commercial real estate markets are still in the chitter. Stock Market aint great.

And now since americans arent interested in buying GM stock he's offering it to the chinese government

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post #3 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 04:57 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

A Recession (I believe) is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That's the definition. Using the definition the recession began in 2007 and ended in 2009.

Employment, etc are actually lagging indicators so it takes time for everything to catch up.

Not everything is a liberal media conspiracy guys.

I'm officially...Stroke-less.
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post #4 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 05:20 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

GA lost 3 banks last week......yup, it's over

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post #5 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 05:36 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

In other news unicorns sh!t rainbows, lepeechauns are real, and politicians don't lie.

08 6.4 lots of stuff.

R.I.P. TMCS (SS) Brooks R Newell, I will forever miss you.


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post #6 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 06:08 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabee08FX4 View Post
In other news unicorns sh!t rainbows, lepeechauns are real, and politicians don't lie.
politicians don't lie? yeah right...
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post #7 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 06:25 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

It looks like my dealer group is not the only one that has seen a serious uptick in truck sales.

E-mailed to me by an industry publication called Transport Topics. Unforunately w/o a subscription the link will not work for you guys but this is the gist of it:

U.S. Class 8 truck sales climbed 23.5% in August from year-ago levels, pushing sales for the first eight months of 2010 to 16.5% higher than last year’s results for the comparable period, WardsAuto.com reported.

I'm officially...Stroke-less.
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post #8 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 06:31 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

Yeah Suns thats little or nothing to do with the recession sales were down 08-09 because noone wanted a DPF equipped truck. They made their existing fleets last a tad longer

Dave G

06 F250 Lariat 4x4 leveled on 35s

4 inch flowmaster exhaust
Bulletproof diesel egr delete.
Bulletproof diesel FICM
Performance Machine & Manufacturing Coolant Filter Kit

ECM and FICM tuned by Bill at PHP SCT tunes from Gearhead, Innovative and Wildman
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post #9 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 08:06 PM
Junior Mint
 
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Re: Recession is OVER????

I completely disagree.

When fleets were interviewed about this exact topic in 2006 a couple of things came out:

1) They had been tricked into pre-buys before and were not falling for it again. e used this info to not over stock pre-emissions units.
2) The economy was soft enough that it did not justify a pre-purchase for many companies.
3) Companies are no longer scared of the new technology. Would you believe that I have lost deals on 2010 model year trucks because customers actually WANT the new emissions? It's true.
4) Companies generally have trade cycles based on tax depreciation and wear. If they are profitable they will stick to this because it just doesn't pay to run the truck longer. The tax advantages are gone, the equipment continues to depreciate, warranty is out, and downtime and repairs begin to really catch up to them. If a truck sits for 3 days a month in a strange town waiting for a part, that's the payment that month in lost revenue.

Here is the thing, I'm in the industry and I read the industry publications carefully so I can predict how to inventory. Consider that I might actually know what I'm talking about.

The economy started to suck badly in early 2007 so people quit buying trucks.

The economy has began to improve markedly in 2010 and therefore trucks sales are now increasing. Used truck sales are thru the roof btw. This is sort of the proverbial 'dipping the tow back in the water" for many companies.

The increased cost of the new emissions equipment really is a non issue when you look at the real cost to run a rig. Buy a truck for $130K and sell it in 5 years for $55K. In the meantime paying the driver w/ benefits, fuel, insurance, wear and tear, etc adds up to another million dollars. The actual purchase price of the truck is really a very small part of the equation and anyone in trucking that doesn't understand that really shouldn't be in trucking.

I'm officially...Stroke-less.
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post #10 of 91 (permalink) Old 09-20-2010, 09:10 PM
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Re: Recession is OVER????

Well I can tell you that 1-4 is the exact opposite of what happened up here.

People didnt wanna touch a DPF equipped truck until they absolutely had to

Dave G

06 F250 Lariat 4x4 leveled on 35s

4 inch flowmaster exhaust
Bulletproof diesel egr delete.
Bulletproof diesel FICM
Performance Machine & Manufacturing Coolant Filter Kit

ECM and FICM tuned by Bill at PHP SCT tunes from Gearhead, Innovative and Wildman
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