Anybody Wanna Verify This Math? - PowerStrokeNation : Ford Powerstroke Diesel Forum
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post #1 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 02:53 PM Thread Starter
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Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Got this in an email and I'm too lazy to check it out.


Quote:
Let me see if I understand this correctly…


A vehicle at 15 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 800 gallons a year of gasoline.

A vehicle at 25 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 480 gallons a year.

So, the average "Cash for Clunkers" transaction will reduce US gasoline consumption by 320 gallons per year.

They claim 700,000 vehicles – so that's 224 million gallons / year.

That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.

5 million barrels of oil is about ¼ of one day's US consumption.

And, 5 million barrels of oil costs about $350 million dollars at $70/bbl.

So, we all contributed to spending $3 billion to save $350 million.

How good a deal was that ???

They'll probably do a better job with health care though!!

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post #2 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 02:58 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

The math is dead on Stupid fuggin democrats

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post #3 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 03:33 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave View Post
The math is dead on Stupid fuggin democrats


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post #4 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 04:48 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Math is CORRECT, but that is assuming the average MPG on all cars traded and bought.....

Still probably no where NEAR the COST of the ENTIRE Cash for Clunkers program....

EPIC FAIL.......

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post #5 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:11 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Well, being an engineer as well as a part owner in a oil field... i can do some math on the oil and barrel and the mpg stuff... but everytime i put those numbers into my calculator i get the same answer....




*FAIL*





guess all my education isn't worth a crap....

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post #6 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:22 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

The error on this is that it takes way more than 5 million barrels of oil to make 224 millions gallons of gasoline. A barrel of oil only produces about 10-15 gallons of gasoline.

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post #7 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:22 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Taken from a government website (updated July 2009):

Quote:
Disposition Related
U.S. Petroleum Consumption 19,498,000 barrels/day
Quote:
Price Related
Crude Oil Domestic First Price (wellhead price) $94.04/barrel
Motor Gasoline Retail Prices (U.S. city average) $3.32/gallon
Regular Grade Motor Gasoline Retail Prices (U.S. city average) $3.27/gallon
Premium Motor Gasoline Retail Prices (U.S. city average) $3.52/gallon
Federal Motor Gasoline Tax 18.4 cents/gallon

From another government website (updated February 2005):

Quote:
Step 3: Determining the number of miles driven
The number of miles driven per year is assumed to be 12,000 miles for all passenger vehicles. This number is based on several sources. Calculations from EPA’s MOBILE6 model show an average annual mileage of roughly 10,500 miles per year for passenger cars and over 12,400 miles per year for light trucks across all vehicles in the fleet. However, these numbers include the oldest vehicles in the fleet (vehicles 25 years of age and older), which are likely not used as primary vehicles and are driven substantially less than newer vehicles. Since this calculation is for a typical vehicle, including the oldest vehicles may not be appropriate. For all vehicles up to 10 years old, MOBILE6 shows an annual average mileage of close to 12,000 miles per year for passenger cars, and over 15,000 miles per year for light trucks.

From the Cars for Clunkers website:

Quote:
CARS CLOSED

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The CARS program ended sales August 24 with nearly 700,000 clunkers taken off the roads, replaced by far more fuel efficient vehicles. Rebate applications worth $2.877 billion were submitted by the 8 p.m. deadline, under the $3 billion provided by Congress to run the program.

From another government website:

Quote:
Table 4-23: Average Fuel Efficiency of U.S. Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Excel | CSV

Average U.S. passenger car fuel efficiency (mpg) (calendar year)
Passenger car

1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
16.0 17.5 20.3 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.1 22.4

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle

1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
12.2 14.3 16.1 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.5 16.2 16.2 17.7 18.0

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post #8 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:23 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

I see flaws in it.

Let's see if anyone knows where they are.

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post #9 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:32 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kampinguru View Post
The error on this is that it takes way more than 5 million barrels of oil to make 224 millions gallons of gasoline. A barrel of oil only produces about 10-15 gallons of gasoline.
Dammit, you posted right before I did.


But, DING DING DING DING!!!! WE HAVE A WINNER!!!

Somehow when converting gallons to barrels, they also magically converted from gasoline to crude oil.

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post #10 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 05:41 PM
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Re: Anybody Wanna Verify This Math?

THe other flaw it seems is a misunderstanding of what Cash for Clunkers was intended to do which is move inventory and stimule business. It wasn't intended to be a wash from a fuel usage standpoint.

But even from a financial standpoint, being that people paid sales tax on their car purchases, the salesman made a commission and paid taxes on that then spent it and paid taxes again on the things he bought, the truckers ship new car parts to the factorys and new cars to the dealers and pay taxes on everything, etc... It goes on and on. That is all government income that is not accounted for as well.

I'm officially...Stroke-less.
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